Monday, January 19, 2009

Lokshaba Elections 2009 - Predictions - Opinion Polls

Jammu and Kashmir

UPA(NC + CONG) - 4,NDA(BJP-1),OTHERS(PDP-1)

Reason: Abdullah’s swiped the assembly elections, Rahul Gandhi and Omar Abdullah combination looks good.

Himachal Pradesh

UPA(CONG)-2,NDA(BJP)-2

Himachal is typical Indian state,BJP and Congress will win one after another.

Punjab

UPA(CONG)-7,NDA(BJP + AKALI DAL)-4

UPA has a Sikh Prime minister; Manmohan Singh will be a poster boy of Congress in PUNJAB

Haryana

UPA(Congress) -5,NDA(BJP and INLD) -5

I am not aware of This state but congress is very strong in Haryana

Delhi

UPA(Congress)-4,NDA(BJP)-3

Delhi assembly elections was a clear indicator for general elections 2009

UttarKhand

UPA(CONG)-3,NDA(BJP)-2

The numbers may get reversed.

Uttar Pradesh

UPA(CONG+SP)-34, BSP+RLD-35,NDA( BJP)-10,OTHER-1

This is the most confusing and difficult state in India to predict,But This state determines the victory .

Bihar

NDA(BJP+JDU)-25,UPA(CONG+RJD+LJP)-15

BJP and JD(u) are doing well in Bihar,Biharis are tasting development during Nithis Kumar’s regime.

Jharkhand

NDA(BJP+JDU)-8,UPA(CONG+JMM+RJD)-4,JVM-2

UPA is very weak in Jharkhand due to mess created by JMM and Shibu Soren.

Assam

UPA(CONG)-5,NDA(BJP+AGP)-8,OTH-1

Poor governance by Tarun Gogai(Cong) and frequent blasts in Assam and Naxalism

SEVEN SISTERS(including Arunachal pradesh)

UPA(CONG+ALLIES)-6,LEFT-2,OTH-1

Traditional congress power Zone

West Bengal

LEFT FRONT-27,TMC-8,UPA(CONG)-7

West Bengal is the stronghold of communists.

Orissa

NDA(BJP+BJD)-14,UPA(CONG)-12

Anything can happen in this state,it is very difficult to predict.

Andhra Pradesh

UPA(CONG)- 18 ,TDP+TRS+LEFT-20,PRAJA RAJYAM(Chiru)-4

Again it is very difficult to say anything in this state.But YSR is stronger than Naidu Garu but Chiru may spilt his votes.

Karnataka

UPA(CONG)-10,NDA(BJP)-15,JDS-03

BJP is very strong in Karnataka.

Kerala

UPA(CONG+IUML)-12,LEFT-8

Both UPA and left may end in getting 10 each.

Goa

NDA(BJP)-1,UPA(CONG)-1

TAMIL NADU

UPA(CONG+DMK+PMK) - 22 ,AIADMK+MDMK+LEFT-16,Vijaykanth-1

UPA can’t sweep 40/40 in this time because left and MDMK is not with DMK this time.

Maharashtra

UPA(CONG+NCP)-22,NDA(BJP+SHIVSENA)-22,MNS-3,BSP-1

But BJP may loose more seats because of its rift with Shiva Sena and MNS may ally with Congress

GUJRAT


UPA(CONG)-8,NDA(BJP)-18

Yes,Modi Mantra everywhere in Gujrat so BJP will win majority in Gujrat

MADHYA PRADESH


UPA(CONG)-9,NDA(BJP)-20

Traditional BJP strong hood state.

RAJASTHAN

UPA(CONG)-13,NDA(BJP)-12

Both are in equal status but Congress have an edge in Rajasthan

CHATTISGARH

UPA(CONG)-3,NDA(BJP)-8

BJP is very strong in Chattisgargh

UNION TERRITORIES

UPA(CONG)-3,NDABJP-3

Out of total 543 seats
UPA may get 230 + or - 20

NDA may get 180 + or - 20

Mamta,Karunanidhi,As usual Sharad Pawar..may play a vital role in National Politics this time.But L.K.Advani can't become prime minister...It will be Sonia again !!!.



Your Comments and Opinion is most Welcome.....Your Comment will be Helpful for my Second Revised Prediction With the Voices of Many Indians Like you....Plzz Feel Free To Comment...

30 comments:

rishi said...

quite a whimsical predicition!

Vijay said...

I pretty much agree with your prediction. I think UPA will perform better than you predicted in AP and Tamil Nadu which could add another 10 - 20 seats. I agree that BJP cannot form the government this time as the alliance arithmetic works against them.

Gopinath Menon said...

r u a congress supporter,congress will not get more than hundred seats,bjp will be the single largest party

pavan said...

hi all, i am just a aam admi(ofcourse indian)voting first time and befeor voting i made a simple and straight forword analysis to whom i should vote...
i will vote to congress and am sure UPA will get 250 seats and with some conditional bonding with left it will form government with 300 seats on whole...
beacause every aam aadmi including hindu-indian-woman,non-hindu-indians,young-loving-couple-indians, pub-going-indians infact 80% of indians are somehow or other way are made to feel that they are minorities and week people in their own country by some political parties..
so wake up india think and vote and make UPA form the government and live a free and happy life in your own mother land

Anonymous said...

Well I am not here to tell you whom to Vote But I don’t want to give my vote to CONgress because they always divide Indian base on cast, community, class etc.
See the example of reservation in Education instead of caliber or when PM say one community (Muslim only) should have first right of all the wealth of India and all other should wait for the left-out. Even Sonia-Monia says to Police why do you arrest Muslims only for any crime why not Other community as its not a crime and community gat to gather. I strongly believe that we should have only one base for reservation and that is rich and poor instead of cast and community. But unfortunately it want happen because people of India don’t want it and unless and until you remove form this FAMALY RUN BUSINESS of Congress, no one can achieve this goal. So, please Vote for anyone but not to CON(dis)gress.

Anonymous said...

I really feel its our responsibility to make congress win elections..
Its the only party in entire country where various catogories of people like men,momen,hidus,muslims,rich,poor,high-caste,low-caste are treated equally and are either CM or president or ministers all most all the responsible posts in their states or in country..
its the only party which treats INDIA our nation with high priority than unlike other parties which make either religion or caste or even social status as their main agenda..

Anonymous said...

i 100% agree with pavan, vote for congress or members of UPA and live a secured life peacefully and happily

Anonymous said...

pavan let me tell you who is making you fell minority.go through history pages how cong policies have favoured minority appeasement and sycophancy.cong is against very idea of one india. its blunders in this regime, the very advancements in our economy were never due to govt policies. and the way pranab mukhergee interprets this in his budget speech if you listened to it four year of india growth was due to govt policies and one year of downturn is due to an extraordinary global crisis.well the point to be noted is that the very growth that is been talked about was due to extraordinary global boom during which an idiot economy like that of pak reported a gdp of around 7%. and also to make you clear that what they are saying today that india will have a gdp growth of around 7% this year this is just a political gimmick as year being an election year they are just manipulating it to keep voters confidence in it intact.remember the five state assembly election when chidambaram ji said india is insulated from crisis and suddenly we now require stimulus packages to keep our economy in shape. well this is one just example there ample of them for instance many simi activist have been associated with terrorist activities but they removed a ban on this organization to appease muslims votes and this has taken toll on our internal security.well the list can go on and on. i am not over here to campaign for any political party but for a simple example compare govts between any nda rule states and upa ruled states then i feel choice for you would be simple.

Anonymous said...

This is for pavan,dont worry dude..

people have been thinking a lot about general elections 2009..As far as i am concerned the way upa has done in gaining the global support and turned the winds of USA towards india from neighbouring countries and the way it sustained economic slump and reporting 2nd highest GDP growth is are great achievements...
I dont see any other party which would have done so much in such a difficult phase...
Its the first time in history when pakistan was made to accept its mistakes in front of whole world and made it loose all the support or sympathy of all the countries..
now is the time when india in on verge of becoming global super power and its better be in hands of UPA and its young brigade than in the hands of selfish, old and non-secular PM aspirants still trying to divide country....
jai ho....
all great things came in upa regime like success in olumpics,now the oscars,20-20 world cup and nuclear-deal and histories were made...
UPA is lucky charm for india and we can expect much more with young generation around............

Anonymous said...

This is for pavan,dont worry dude..

people have been thinking a lot about general elections 2009..As far as i am concerned the way upa has done in gaining the global support and turned the winds of USA towards india from neighbouring countries and the way it sustained economic slump and reporting 2nd highest GDP growth is are great achievements...
I dont see any other party which would have done so much in such a difficult phase...
Its the first time in history when pakistan was made to accept its mistakes in front of whole world and made it loose all the support or sympathy of all the countries..
now is the time when india in on verge of becoming global super power and its better be in hands of UPA and its young brigade than in the hands of selfish, old and non-secular PM aspirants still trying to divide country....
jai ho....
all great things came in upa regime like success in olumpics,now the oscars,20-20 world cup and nuclear-deal and histories were made...
UPA is lucky charm for india and we can expect much more with young generation around............

ASHOK said...

Hi Dis is Ashok from ANDHRA PRADESH ur estimation may wrong in AP y bcoz...here YSR's CONGRESS is very STRONG so dis (2009) time also YSR-CONGRESS wil get full mejority both in LOKSABHA and ASSEMBLY.UPA wil be form GOVT again on central.No second thought.

Anonymous said...

Kerala UDF-14(minimum) maximum(16)

Anonymous said...

You are terribly wrong.BJP will do better this time.The anti incumbancy factor will play. BJP will win 165- 175 seats,SHS 15,BJD 10,SAD 8,JD u 15 - Total 220-225.TDP with 10-12,AIADMK with 12-15,BSP with 30-35,TRS/Chiranjeevi 5-7 all will support NDA and makes the tally to 277-294.NDA will come into power but they have compromise a lot for these regional allies.

Anonymous said...

i really dont know why people are still dreaming about BJP or NDA coming into power....
This the last time where BJP is even contesting in elections...i will be pretty amused if BJP on its owm wins more than hundred seats and all the supporters of NDA together may get around 140 seats and third front(mayawati-23,lefts-20,tdp-5,trs-2,aiadmk-10,....)will get around 60 and congress alone will get the 280 seats and its supporters(SP,NC,TC and laloo.....) will get the remaining 60 seats making UPA tally 340 without any pressure from left parties this time UPA will complete full term and india will see a GDP of avg 9% in next five years under UPA this time and most deserving leaders are there only in congress who understand the minds of todays youth, who need only opportunities to make india a better place to live but not politics based on god and caste and creed like other parties do and even at the age of 83 people are still greedy of becoming PM of this country which is on its critical phase and need young and dynamic politicians but not mere selfish and power greedy politicians......this prediction may not vary more than 5% at any situation....
jai ho.....jai ho......

Anonymous said...

I think BJP will come to power..Congress is full of pseudo seculars and pseduointellecctuals..Its mainly in to minority appeasement ...BJP has more balances and practical veiw ....

Anonymous said...

Mr. Advani has been sent from pakistan as a ISI agent at the age of 20, and the motive was to divide India once again on the lines of Hindu's & Muslims, I think he has done his job and after completing his task, he has gone back to pakistan to pay homage to his mentor Jinnah. I am not against Modi ji, coz he was just another person in BJP who was being scapegoated for the riots in Gujarat, and he is still trying to figure out, how he can come clean. I wish that Indians should vote for only 2 parties, either BJP or Congress. There are only three answers to a question... Yes , No or Cant say. So there should be only three National parties. Third is your choice, but the first 2 must be BJP and Congress, if you dont like the way they are functioning, get into them and clean it. All the Best in Life.

sen said...

I am really surprised to see few of my friends said congress will get majority on its own. Lets see the reality, congress is allotted 4 seats in Bihar, 6 in UP, 8 in Tamil Nadu, 12 in West Bengal, Maharashtra not yet decided, congress allies don’t want to share seats with congress. With this congress getting majority on its own is totally ruled out
No Difference in BJP, Except Karnataka, they wont get a single seat in South India.. one of its trusted allies BJD is now out, so there is no question of getting them a majority in this election.

So as for us Congress or BJP is concerned if they want to head the next government their total should cross 275 and if that is not going to happen then now way one of the national party is going to lead the government and which is going to be nightmare disastrous

So next question is who will be single largest party, this will be decided based on following state results Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Andhra, Chhattisgarh, that’s why believe BJP has an edge over Congress. As for us think Except Andhra BJP is in strong wicket in all other states compared to Congress. In Andhra BJP is out but Congress is facing Anti incumbency + Grand alliance of TDP+Left+TRS. So I think based on my analysis BJP will get around 150 and Congress will get 135

Will the 3rd front gets majority? Who knows, if the above scenario happens, the parties from like RJB, SP , NCP and JDU will take no time to switch sides…This to happen 4 parties are key Jays’s AIADMK, Mays’s BSP, Naidu’s TDP if they get 100 seats + ever reliable 35 seats from left will add to became 135 to 140 then anything can happen. For India’s safety lets pray this wont happen. But how long this 3rd front will hold that’s a million dollar question which no one can answer.

My expectation is on May 16th we will get the results as close as below

BJP – 150
BJP Allies (SS+JDU+Akali+AGP+INLD+small parties) – 50
Congress – 135
Congress Allies (SP+RJD+DMK+NCP+TC+other small parties) – 70
Others -135

On 16th we all wil know how close I am in my predictions, if this happens india is going to witness new lows in politics.

Lets wait and watch

Anonymous said...

In Kerala
LDF chances 8-15 seats
UDF chances 5-8
SP chance 1
NCP 1
BJP -000(hope, what I mean?)

Ravee said...

You are biased to say the least. Outrightly you have predicted that L.K. Advani will not be P.M. this time.If you are an astrologer I can agree with you else, it is pure bias.Considering the attrition from UPA in Bihar, T.N. , U.P. and other states , UPA will not get more than 180 seats.

India will be either ruled by B.J.P with new allies or by a consensus puppet P.M. by the support of all and sundry. God save India.

My voice.. said...

I think you wrote with bias, and you wrote too early brother! Jan 19th wooo!
I think you do not understand Indian elections if you write out opinions 3 months before the elections.
Here we are in April
1)Varun Gandhi has screwed up.
2)Lalu, Paswan, Mulayam have shown congress the gates.
3)BJD - BJP have split.
4)Tytler walk free, i will be surprised if congress gets more that 2 seats in Punjab now.
5)Then there is Chiranjeevi's Prajya Rajyam in Andhra Pradesh.
6)Jaya has raised a storm in TN, and I can bet the bottom dollar she might sweep it.

Please don't be fooled by the UPA's secularism call, and the NDA's promises on 370. This is all shit. The UPA is as secular as the POPE and the NDA will never be able to annul article 370. Don't be like kids.

I don't want to make a numerical prediction because that would be foolish.
All i can say is, this will be the closest elections in the young history of independent India.

Anonymous said...

A week is a long time in Indian politics, Yes the scenario is changed completely in last few months.

1. UPA is no longer United Progressive Alliance, there is no unity and most of its allies are out

2. BJP – BJD 11 year alliance is over

3. Congress – NCP has still Face off

4. 3rd Front gaining allies and momentum

I am not going to predict the numbers this time but here to tell the Positives and negatives of 3 alliances

Congress Positives

1. Congress may get few seats more in Kerala, WB and Rajasthan compared to Last time
2. All though now the UPA seems to be split, if congress gets around 160 seats on its own most of the UPA allies remains with congress. So for congress the magical number is 160

Congress Negatives

Its sure Congress and UPA is losing grounds in state like TN, Andhra, Bihar and cannot retain 25 % of the seats that they have won last time

They will also lose few more seats in states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Assam, Punjab and Haryana when compared to Last time

BJP Positives:

Congress loss is BJP’s gain, they gain seats in Bihar, Gujarat, Karnataka, Assam, Punjab and Haryana

Because of alliance with Ajith Singh in UP they will do slightly better this time

Most of the 3rd Front parties like AIADMK, TDP which expected to do well in this elections are Past NDA allies, so they can join with BJP any time

BJP Negatives:

Broke down of alliance with BJD this will cause the loss of around 12 to 15 seats

May loose few seats in Rajasthan, compared to last time

3rd Front Positives

They have chance of winning around 70 % of the seats in the states of Tamil Nadu, UP, WB, Andhra, Orissa

After election if they get reasonable share of seats, the UPA and NDA allies may switch to them at any time.

3rd Front Negatives

No unity among the parties and too many of them want to became PM

They will depend on BJP or Congress to form the government

kousik bhattacharjee said...

in bengal my prediction left are gain 37 cong 4 and tmc 1

Anonymous said...

Your opinion poll is right in the scenario when election was announced...And now everything changed... all UPA parties left UPA and all fighting each other, many places contest are in triangular or Quadrangle. So Now the hope is with NDA, I am sure that once election results declared smaller Parties will be in queue before Advaniji's residents with their letter of support, because NDA will get sufficeint number of seats to form a govt.,

Anonymous said...

heres this is another aam aadmi and my vote will be with congress and the reason simply being that what we see today is because of congress no party like bjp that came for a few years can say they made what we see today today India stands in a position to face all the developed countries, ofcource there are lot of problems of powerty unemployment curreption and the main reason for most of the problems are we only.. many govt sectors are now going under private but governd by govt and ofcource this wud take time to show what for it is being done. and as far as evry1 knows BJP can just win on the name of Hindism.. i respect my religion being a Hindu myself but there are not just Hindus who make this country and progress is where evry1 is together and where you divide a country with religions i dont think the country will ever think of development except thinking of their religion and actully who will suffer is the aam aadmi the poor the middle class and evry1.. every1 knows the truth though me being a part of this democratic country gave my personal opinion.. lets see what happens

sam said...

I am 100% cong not will back again,L,K Advani is the pm,,

sam said...

BJP will do better this time.The anti incumbancy factor will play. BJP(NDA) will win 200- 255 seats

edi said...

dude i am tamilnadu..aiadmk 25-30
dmk(dmk+congress)10-15...congress will win 3-4 out of 16 contesting places..

jithu.p. said...

hi..
i'm frm kerala..ur predictictions are absolutely wrong..left will find it xtremely difficult to get even 4 seats...cong alone can get around 12-15 seats...itzz allies iuml(2),kc(M)-1
=>upa frm kerala=(15-18)
left front is not unted in krla as in west bengal...cpm also facin lot of rebels...govt is completely non functioning...u can ask any keralite for clarity....huge setbak frm kerala on the waiting for left

Anonymous said...

Hey election is over now and one thing is absolutely clear, nobody is going to get the majority. Congress + Allies - 200
BJP+Allies - 195
Left - 32
Others - 115

Congress closest to form government with alliance from left, but remember if left joing Congress , TMC will abstain from voting.So, majority will come down to 266 (counting 10 seats for TMC). Congress + allies+left would be - 222. Congress will have to woo 44 seats from the others by paying bribes, offerring ministerial positions, begging in what ever way they can and who knows they might pull the likes of Jaya(at the expense of Karunanidhi), Chiranjeebee, Navin saab,Nitish Kumar and last but not the least all pervading Mayawati(though unlikeliest). So, welcome friend's to the newest regime of uncertainty. I can bet in the next 5 years you won't be able to see any development in India. God save India.
or
let there be a hang parliament and reelection and let the new election choose a strong alliance(Pray to God for that if you are an aam admi and love your country).

Anonymous said...

Hi
i think the congress should win .Basically if youll ask all NRI they will say the same.Honestly I think Advani is a terrorist to Divide our country